Last night Russell forwarded me this email the British Embassy sent out to their constituents. It made me feel a lot better. Good enough to go out to dinner and get a good night sleep.
I have just returned from a conference call held at the British Embassy in Tokyo. The call was concerning the nuclear issue in Japan. The chief spokesman was Sir. John Beddington, Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, and he was joined by a number of qualified nuclear experts based in the UK. Their assessment of the current situation in Japan is as follows:
* In case of a 'reasonable worst case scenario' (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 miles (50km) would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples' health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.
* The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided. A further large quake with tsunami could lead to the suspension of the current cooling operations, leading to the above scenario.
* The bottom line is that these experts do not see there being a possibility of a health problem for residents in Tokyo. The radiation levels would need to be hundreds of times higher than current to cause the possibility for health issues, and that, in their opinion, is not going to happen (they were talking minimum levels affecting pregnant women and children - for normal adults the levels would need to be much higher still).
* The experts do not consider the wind direction to be material. They say Tokyo is too far away to be materially affected.
* If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved after ten days, as the reactors' cores cool down.
* Information being provided by Japanese authorities is being independently monitored by a number of organizations and is deemed to be accurate, as far as measures of radioactivity levels are concerned.
* This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, an exclusion zone of 30 miles would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water in the region for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity levels in the food supply at that time or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion is in contrast to the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.
* The Head of the British School asked if the school should remain closed. The answer was there is no need to close the school due to fears of radiation. There may well be other reasons - structural damage or possible new quakes - but the radiation fear is not supported by scientific measures, even for children.
* Regarding Iodine supplementation, the experts said this was only necessary for those who had inhaled quantities of radiation (those in the exclusion zone or workers on the site) or through consumption of contaminated food/water supplies. Long term consumption of iodine is, in any case, not healthy.
The discussion was surprisingly frank and to the point. The conclusion of the experts is that the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami, as well as the subsequent aftershocks, was much more of an issue than the fear of radiation sickness from the nuclear plants.
This morning the Japanese TV stations resumed their regular programming. But then the U.S. embassy sent us a note announcing the expansion of the evacuation area to 80 kilometers (50 miles) around the plant. Remember we live 250 kilometers away. And now they're suggesting "voluntary departure" for U.S. citizens:
The State Department has authorized the voluntary departure from
Japan of eligible family members of U.S. government personnel
assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, the U.S. Consulate in
Nagoya, and the Foreign Service Institute Field School in
Yokohama. U.S. citizens should defer all travel to the evacuation
zone around Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, areas affected
by the earthquake and tsunami and tourism and non-essential
travel to the rest of Japan at this time.
It seems like every day the nuclear reactor situation gets just a little worse. Not worse enough to make it obvious there's a real threat but just enough to increase the ambient stress level another decibel. From a factual standpoint there is no reason to leave. Even if there is a meltdown of one or more reactors Tokyo is far enough away not to pose a real threat. The grocery stores are restocked (as of last night), we have electricity and the aftershocks seem to have diminished. Tokyo restaurants are open and not crowded for a change. This weekend is a three day weekend. Not because of the disaster but because Monday is the first day of Spring. Spring is a very big deal in Japan.
However, from a psychological standpoint it's very stressful to remain. Almost every xpat we know has already left or has a flight out. Each aftershock is another reminder of the big one and the suggestion for another. The concerns of family and friends, while comforting, is a reminder there is a reason to worry. These mental influences weigh heavy on us.
This afternoon the U.S. embassy sent out instructions for evacuation:
The U.S. Embassy in
to depart that the Department of State is making arrangements to
provide transportation to safehaven locations in
The British Embassy suggested their citizens consider leaving as well but specifically indicated this was not because of radiation issues.
The anxiety attack is back. Usually it feels like two elephants sitting on me, one on the front; one on the back. But since today is St. Patrick's day it feels more like two testy leprechauns.
Today we investigated travel back to L.A. just in case. The quarantine office has agreed to waive the six month quarantine term but not the 40 day notification period if we do go back to L.A. We now have three options: stay put, fly home and stay for at least 40 days, or drive South. We'll have to make a decision soon.
But for now it's St. Patrick's Day and I can't think of a better way to escape the aftershocks and decision making than to get tipsy. Plus I have to shake these two leprechauns.
Oh and the washer is fixed now. So we got that going for us.
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